US politics: Gay Interests at Mercy of California Political Turmoil

Hastings Wyman | July 9, 2003

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Gov. Gray Davis (D-Calif.) and his Democratic legislature have an excellent record on gay issues. At this writing, a domestic partners proposal similar to Vermont's civil unions is making its way through the Assembly, as are bills that would protect gay foster parents' rights and include gender and gender identity in existing rights laws. Davis is expected to sign all of them.

But the pro-gay governor could get booted out of office for a totally nongay reason: a state financial crisis - namely, a $38-billion gap between income and expenditures - that the Davis administration and its legislative allies seem unable to resolve. The latest opinion survey shows his approval rating at a bottom-scraping 21 percent. The latest joke in California is that Davis is less popular than accused wife-killer Scott Peterson.

With such low numbers, Davis is an easy target for his political foes. A recall effort that had little support, even from the GOP, gained momentum when right-wing Republican Congressman Darrell Issa (pronounced "eye-sa") put personal money behind it to fund expenses. (Many states have recall provisions, but they are rarely used.) At last count, Davis' foes had turned in 376,000 signatures and claim another 200,000 in the pipeline, with 898,000 needed to force a recall referendum. If, as expected, the recall effort gets enough signatures, the ballot will have two questions: (1) Do you want to recall Davis? (2) If Davis is recalled, which of the following replacement candidates do you vote for?

The candidate with a plurality wins.

If the signatures are turned in by July 20, the vote will be this November. If the petitions aren't submitted until Sept. 2, the referendum will be next March, when the Democrats are likely to have two factors bringing out their vote: a contested presidential primary, and an initiative, opposed by African-American groups, to limit the state's gathering of racial data. The Davis foes "know they can't beat us in March," says Eric Bauman, a gay political operative who is a co-director of the anti-recall campaign. (In the unlikely event that Davis' opponents don't meet the Sept. 2 deadline, the recall effort will be dead.)

If no major Democrat is on the ballot as a potential replacement to Davis, the recall's chances are weaker, so Davis backers were pleased when most of the state's leading Democrats - including Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, and Attorney General Bill Lockyer - said they would not run. However, if Davis continues his free fall, one or more leading Democrats might decide to run.

On the GOP side, Issa is sure to be a candidate. A social conservative, he supported the anti-same-sex marriage Knight initiative and has a very poor 17 percent Human Rights Campaign rating in Congress. Recently, however, he did show up at a Log Cabin Republican reception in Washington, D.C. Last year's gubernatorial nominee, Bill Simon Jr., who made some pro-gay statements then took them back, is also interested.

Two other potential Republicans contenders, however, could get significant gay support. Richard Riordan had a good record on gay issues as mayor of Los Angeles. And movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger has no record in public office, but he is pro-choice and pro-gun-control and has been described as pro-gay by both friends and foes. Schwarzenegger could be hurt - but not necessarily in the gay community - because there are nude pictures of him on the Internet, taken when he was a struggling competitive bodybuilder. Riordan and Schwarzenegger have reportedly talked in hopes of agreeing that only one of them will run.

At this point, no one's predicting what the outcome will be. "It's going to be a wild ride," sums up San Francisco gay Democratic political consultant Tony Winnicker. And the interests of the gay community will be along for that ride.

Hastings Wyman publishes Southern Political Report, a nonpartisan biweekly political newsletter.